Sunday, July 13, 2008

Why attacks on India embassy in Afghanistan?

While Afghan security sources have projected the incident as an attempt to kill Afghan President Hamid Karzai, the neo Taliban has projected it as an operation to demonstrate its capability even in Kabul, despite all the security precautions taken by the government. The incident has revealed serious deficiencies in route security and perimeter security.

The deficiencies in route security enabled six heavily-armed terrorists enter the city and reach the hotel without being detected and intercepted anywhere. The deficiencies in perimeter security enabled the perpetrators to take up position in a room of the hotel without being detected and fire from there.

Apart from these physical security deficiencies, was there also complicity by any member of the security forces? That is a question, which should be worrying the Afghan authorities. In Iraq, many successful terrorist strikes have been made possible by internal complicity.In Afghanistan, till now, there have been few instances of such complicity." Forty one people are reported to have been killed by a suicide bomber with a Vehicle-borne Improvised Explosive Device outside the gates of the Indian embassy in Kabul on July 7. Four of them are stated to be Indian nationals -- including the Indian defense attaché, a counselor-level diplomat and two security guards.
From the indications available so far, it is evident that it was a targeted attack on the Indian mission. Was it also a targeted attack on the defense attaché? This question arises from the fact that the vehicle-borne suicide bomber reportedly rammed his vehicle against two cars of the mission as they were about to enter the mission. North Atlantic Treaty Organization officers in Afghanistan have spoken of a 40 per cent increase in the infiltration of terrorists from the tribal belt of Pakistan into Afghanistan since the new Pakistani government suspended military operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and entered into peace negotiations with them. Even as acts of terrorism -- including suicide terrorism -- have increased in Afghan territory, there has been a sharp decrease in acts of suicide terrorism in Pakistani territory.

The increasing Indian presence in Afghanistan for assisting in the economic development of Afghanistan and for strengthening the capability of the Afghan government in various fields has been a constant source of criticism by Pakistan, which has taken up the issue repeatedly with the US and other NATO countries. Urdu newspapers in Pakistan had even accused India of fomenting trouble in Balochistan from covert bases in Afghan territory.
Pakistan thus has a strong motive to target Indian nationals and interests in Afghanistan through its surrogate, the Taliban. During the last three years, there has been a steep increase in acts of suicide terrorism by the neo Taliban of Afghanistan headed by Mulla Mohammad Omar.


Initially, the suicide attacks were by individual suicide bombers who carried the IEDs on their person. The modus operandi using VBIED, which causes many more fatalities than individual bombers carrying the IED, was and is still being used with devastating effect in Iraq by Al Qaeda. Training in this has been imparted by Al Qaeda to neo Taliban volunteers in the training camps of Al Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic Jihad Group, another Uzbek organization, in North Waziristan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan.
The successful attack outside the Indian mission has been made possible by poor security on the road in which the Indian mission is located. One would have, therefore, expected the level of road security and access security on this road to have been high. The details available so far do not speak of any specific physical security deficiency in the Indian mission itself .

Al Qaeda has been looking for opportunities for a major terrorist strike against the US and Israel. Even if Al Qaeda has no motive presently for targeting Indian nationals and interests, it badly needs a successful terrorist strike against the US or other Western powers in order to prove to its followers and admirers that its capability for action against the US and Israel remains strong.

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